{"id":282,"date":"2011-08-23T12:21:56","date_gmt":"2011-08-23T19:21:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/?page_id=282"},"modified":"2012-11-02T15:37:11","modified_gmt":"2012-11-02T22:37:11","slug":"western-grid-2050-key-findings-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/clean-energy-vision-technical-report\/western-grid-2050-key-findings-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Western Grid 2050 Key Findings"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Western Grid 2050: Contrasting Futures, Contrasting Fortunes<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Screen-shot-2011-08-23-at-11.20.48-PM.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-369\" title=\"Screen shot 2011-08-23 at 11.20.48 PM\" src=\"http:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Screen-shot-2011-08-23-at-11.20.48-PM-231x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"231\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Screen-shot-2011-08-23-at-11.20.48-PM-231x300.jpg 231w, https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Screen-shot-2011-08-23-at-11.20.48-PM.jpg 422w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 231px) 100vw, 231px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nCarl Linvill, John Candelaria, Ashley Spalding<br \/>\n<em>Aspen Environmental Group for Western Grid Group<\/em><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Western-Grid-2050-Report-FindingsV4.pdf\">(Download PDF of this sheet)<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe western United States is at a crossroads. Wise electricity sector investment choices will lay the foundation for a robust, competitive and healthy West for generations to come. Unwise choices will leave western businesses at a competitive disadvantage in the global marketplace, western consumers with higher electricity bills and westerners of all walks of life with an unhealthy environment.\u201d<br \/>\n<strong>Executive summary<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>More than $200 billion will be invested in the electricity sector in the West by 2030. Investment is needed to replace aging generating units and respond to new energy demand from population growth, and economic expansion and electrification of the transportation fleet.<\/p>\n<p><em>Western Grid 2050<\/em> analyzes Business As Usual (BAU) and Clean Energy Vision (CEV) development trajectories for the 11 western states and compares their economic, environmental, security and public health impacts.\u00a0 The report is intended to illuminate differences between alternative futures to emphasize the importance of making intentional policy and investment choices that shape the West\u2019s electricity landscape.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Five trajectories were studied<\/strong> (BAU Base, BAU High Growth, CEV Low Demand, CEV Base Demand and CEV High Demand Case). Base data for the cases came from Western Electricity Coordinating Committee 2010 Study Cases, the entity responsible for coordinating and promoting bulk electric system reliability throughout the Western Interconnection, and were extrapolated beyond 2020 using BAU and CEV assumptions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>In the <strong>BAU cases<\/strong> investment focuses on retrofitting and repowering coal generation and developing new natural gas-fired generation.\u00a0 Renewable generation is limited to meeting existing policy requirements, and efficiency measures and electrification of transportation are modest.\u00a0 Nuclear and hydro generation continue operating at current levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Transmission operation under BAU<\/strong> is largely unchanged and each of the 38 Balancing Areas in the West meets its own reliability requirements with little regional cooperation. Regulatory and business model paradigms remain unchanged.\u00a0 (Chapter 1, Page 11)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>CEV cases<\/strong> invest significantly in demand reduction (through energy efficiency, codes, standards and conservation) and distributed renewable generation is pursued aggressively.\u00a0 There is a transition completely away from conventional coal and natural gas generation is limited to meet carbon emission reduction targets.\u00a0 Large-scale renewable development fills the generation gap. Existing natural gas is re-purposed to ensure resource adequacy and reliability. Nuclear generation continues at current levels and existing hydro generation is de-rated gradually to 80 percent of current levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Transmission operation under CEV<\/strong> assumes significant investment in advanced information, communications and control system technologies. The investments are assumed to support much greater grid flexibility, which is assumed to facilitate electrification of the transportation sector. Regional Coordination and cooperation among balancing areas increases across the west resulting in increased sharing and trading of resources and greater utilization of existing infrastructure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Generation sources<\/strong> differ dramatically between BAU to CEV cases by 2030. Refer to pages 48 \u2013 50 for specifics on each case and its mix of coal, gas, renewable energy, energy efficiency, etc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Resource-Mix-2030-no-numbers2_600.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-296\" title=\"Resource-Mix-2030-no-numbers2_600\" src=\"http:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Resource-Mix-2030-no-numbers2_600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Resource-Mix-2030-no-numbers2_600.jpg 600w, https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Resource-Mix-2030-no-numbers2_600-300x148.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>OUTCOMES<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jobs: CEV development trajectories position the western electricity sector to become an engine of new job creation.<\/strong> The West can expect to generate more jobs per dollar invested under CEV cases vs BAU cases. CEV represents significantly more direct investment in high job-creating infrastructure development and operation than BAU, which requires considerable expenditures on fuel supply, a relatively low job creator. CEV jobs are high quality opportunities across a broad range of education requirements, salary levels and fields. Many are related to construction and installation, representing jobs that are inherently local in nature. Establishing a robust and long-term clean energy market can also enhance the West\u2019s prospects for attracting manufacturing jobs. While CEV industries have a global manufacturing base, proximity to market is one significant factor in siting new factories.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Global Competitiveness: <\/strong>A leading edge western electricity sector will make the West a producer and exporter of advanced technologies and create a competitive advantage for western businesses in the global marketplace. Roughly $2 trillion will be invested in clean energy globally over the next 10 years.\u00a0 Clean energy leadership nationwide would attract an additional investment of $97 billion to the U.S. over the next 10 years. A CEV trajectory will position the West to garner a significant share of that potential investment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Energy Reliability and Security: <\/strong>CEV reduces the use of coal and natural gas, decreasing the West\u2019s exposure to expected continued fuel price increases and volatility as well as potential supply disruptions. CEV also enables electrification of our vehicles, delivering the energy security and price benefits of a transition away from foreign oil.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Land Use: <\/strong>BAU requires less land than CEV for generation and transmission but uses far more land for fuel exploration and production. The highest large-scale renewable build-out case for 2030 under CEV represents approximately \u00bd of 1% of the land in the West.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Environment: CEV cases emit far less harmful pollution and carbon than BAU cases. <\/strong>By 2050 the CEV cases would also reduce electricity-related water consumption by more than half, saving 289-343 billion of gallons of this severely limited resource.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Public Health: <\/strong>By transitioning away from coal, CEV cases can prevent hundreds of thousands of cases of premature death, heart attacks, asthma from particulate matter and neurological and development disorders from mercury exposure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Climate Breakdown:<\/strong> The CEV represents a \u201ccredible commitment\u201d by the West to do its part to reduce carbon emissions therefore mitigating risks and costs associated with climate breakdown.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Figure 25: BAU vs. CEV<br \/>\nCarbon Reduction from Generation (page 56)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/CEV-carbon-reduction.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-298\" title=\"CEV carbon reduction\" src=\"http:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/CEV-carbon-reduction.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"619\" height=\"337\" srcset=\"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/CEV-carbon-reduction.jpg 619w, https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/CEV-carbon-reduction-300x163.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 619px) 100vw, 619px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Costs: Depending on the case, total BAU costs range from $12 billion less expensive to $46 billion more expensive than CEV for generation, transmission and demand reduction by 2030.\u00a0<\/strong> By taking full advantage of energy saving opportunities, a CEV trajectory can be achieved at lower cost than BAU. Because BAU cases have higher fuel and carbon costs, CEV will only cost consumers more in the unlikely case that natural gas prices and carbon prices stay low for the next 20 years. The report identifies sources of BAU and CEV cost beyond those quantified that require further investigation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Grid Design: <\/strong>BAU and CEV futures imply a dramatic difference in how the grid will be operated and planned for decades to come.\u00a0 Today, over 90 percent of the region\u2019s electricity comes from large central station fossil, hydro and nuclear plants. The existing system was built and is operated to accommodate large base-load plants that serve local markets.\u00a0 It is inflexible and limited in its ability to assimilate new technologies or facilitate regional cooperation and sharing of resources.\u00a0 The BAU development trajectories continue this design. The CEV trajectories require dramatic changes in design.\u00a0 These changes provide a more efficient grid with greater flexibility that allows for much greater regional cooperation and trading of resources.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Regional Coordination: <\/strong>A CEV trajectory requires greater cooperation and coordination among utilities and the 38 separate electric balancing authorities across the West. These changes update the existing 30-50 year infrastructure and provide a more efficient grid with greater flexibility.\u00a0 It will allow for much more efficient and effective resource trading and will reliably accommodate both distributed and large-scale renewable technologies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Western Clean Energy Advocates (WCEA) organizations have joined together in the Clean Energy Vision Project and endorse the findings of the report:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies (CEERT), Clean Line Energy Partners, Clean Energy Project, Defenders of Wildlife, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), Geothermal Energy Association (GEA), Intertribal Council on Utility Policy (Intertribal COUP), Interwest Energy Alliance, Large-Scale Solar Association (LSA), National Wildlife Federation (NWF), Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Nevada Conservation League (NCL), Nevada Wilderness Project (NWP), NW Energy Coalition (NWEC), Oregon Natural Desert Association (ONDA), Renewable Northwest Project (RNP), Sierra Club, Sonoran Institute, Southwest Energy Efficiency Project (SWEEP), The Wilderness Society, Utah Clean Energy, Vote Solar, Western Clean Energy Campaign, Western Environmental Law Center (WELC), Western Grid Group (WGG), Western Resource Advocates (WRA)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Western Grid 2050: Contrasting Futures, Contrasting Fortunes Carl Linvill, John Candelaria, Ashley Spalding Aspen Environmental Group for Western Grid Group (Download PDF of this sheet) \u201cThe western United States is at a crossroads. Wise electricity sector investment choices will lay &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/clean-energy-vision-technical-report\/western-grid-2050-key-findings-2\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":73,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-282","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=282"}],"version-history":[{"count":36,"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":741,"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/282\/revisions\/741"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/73"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/westerngrid.net\/CEV\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}